Jim Sinclair, "Could a Bankrupt BP Be Worse for the Financial World Than Lehman Brothers?"
[excerpt:]
Think about what happens if BP goes under. This is no bank. With proven reserves and wells in the ground, equity in fields all over the planet, in terms of credit quality and credit provision -- nothing can match an oil major. God only knows how many assets around the planet are dependent on credit and finance extended from BP. It's likely to dwarf any banking entity in multiples....
As we're beginning to see, the Western pension structure, financial trading, and global credit are all intertwined. BP is central to this, as a massive supplier of what many believe(d) to be AAA credit. So while we see banks roll over and die and sovereign entities begin to falter, we now have a major oil company on the verge of going under. Another leg of the global economic "chair" is being viciously kicked out from under us. Ecological damage isn't just an eco-event on its isolated own. It's been added to the list of man-made disasters jeopardizing the world economy. The price tag and resultant knock-on effects of a BP failure could easily be equal to that of a Lehman, if not more. It's surely, at the very least, Enron times 10....
It looks like an exact replication of the 2008 credit-market seizure could ensue all over again -- and it could be a lot worse.
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