Wednesday, December 22, 2010

2010 Census: Winners and Losers


Go west, young man.
Or south.
The 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives will be reapportioned.

And once Congressmen and women are properly seated, one of the things they will need to consider is how the 2010 Census data will impact projections for the Social Security trust fund. Simply put, the population of the U.S. is not growing as fast as had been thought. This is bad news for any Ponzi scheme, especially this one. If it is no longer true (as W.C. Fields once said) that there is a sucker born every minute, then who is going to pay for all those retirement benefits promised in the future for those working today?

Bruce Krasting poses this very question at

"Given that we now know that our population is smaller than SSA [i.e. Social Security Administration] had assumed and is growing at a smaller rate, there are significant implications to the retirement system. All of those implications are negative.

From the census data alone SSA will be forced to conclude A) the date that the system goes negative is not 2037 and B) the date that SSA goes permanently cash flow negative is not 2015. Just from the census data I am now forecasting that the date that the SSA goes permanently cash negative was 2008. We will never see a return to a cash surplus. The 2037 drop-dead date will be shortened by a minimum of 5 years. I say the system explodes in 2030. These are very material changes."

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