Thursday, November 29, 2012

Stock Market Waltzes Despite Data

[click here to enlarge--from ZeroHedge]

Figures released this morning indicated that U.S. stocks, up over 2% since yesterday's lows, are into some serious Kool-Aid.  First, a revision of the government's estimate of third-quarter GDP suggests that economic growth may soon go from anemic to nonexistent.  Increases in personal disposable income, business investment, and real final sales--the things that we want to go UP--were revised downward.  Government expenditures and unsold inventories--which we would like to see go DOWN--were up.  With stats like these, no one is expecting Q4 GDP to match Q3's.

Also headed in the wrong direction are initial unemployment claims.  The four-week moving average (chart below) has reversed back up over 400,000 for the first time in over a year.  With consumer spending accounting for roughly 70% of GDP, it is hard to see how things will get better soon.

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