Lies, Damn Lies, and Government Statistics

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics tried to put the best possible face on Friday's employment data, noting in its monthly press release that the U.S. economy lost "only" 524,000 jobs in December. Thus, if you squint at the graph above, you might jump to the conclusion that we have turned a corner. After all, 524K is less than November's 584K. Happy days are here again!

Two things about these numbers. First, the number for November is an upward revision of the figure announced one month ago, which was 533K. Expect December's number to be revised higher as well. Second, the headline numbers from month to month are "seasonally adjusted," which is bureaucrats' lingo for "messed with." To get the actual number for December, you have to scroll down to the bottom of the report and click on Table B-1. Then look at the figures in the top row that are NOT seasonally adjusted. Whoops, the job loss was more like 954K.

So that corner that you thought you saw--fuhgeddaboudit. Later on Friday Mainers were treated to more bad news when NewPage Corp., owner of the coated-paper mill in Rumford, announced plans to take 150,000 tons of downtime in 2009's first quarter. The company's press release was not specific as to which mills--or how many employees--would be affected. But there can be little doubt that NewPage will be impacting the job figures from BLS for January and beyond.