Friday, July 8, 2011

Roll Over, Beethoven


Is there a better word to describe today's job numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics? Only 43,000 nonfarm payrolls (according to the Establishment Survey) have been added in the U.S. economy in the last two months, a number insufficient to accommodate all the new entrants to the workforce, never mind the 8 million-plus who lost jobs since December 2007.

If you prefer the Household Survey for your employment data, put on your seat belt. The number of people employed nationwide in June plunged either by 445,000 (Table A-1 here) or by 542,000 (Table A-8 here, ag plus non-ag) depending on which table you peruse. The so-called Adjusted Household Survey, which tries to dovetail the establishment and household methodologies, comes in at minus 401,000. Pick a number, any number, it's all the same. Upchuck city.

Mike Mish Shedlock points out that there has been no progress in upgrading part-time jobs in the past year:

Dave Rosenberg has a chart showing the difficulty the unemployed are having trying to get back to work:

Lee Adler shows how payroll withholdings (hence wages and salaries) are flatlining:

The stock market looked primed for major pukage at the open today. But hours after the BLS release came a report that consumer credit expanded in May. Traders jumped on that slim reed as evidence that the economy is picking up steam. Karl Denninger cautions, however, that any growth in non-revolving credit (red line, below) is purely the result of federally guaranteed student loans. Absent indentured college graduates, non-revolving credit is still contracting (green line). Revolving credit (blue line--think credit cards) is not rebounding meaningfully.

Look at these charts carefully, then invest accordingly.

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